Texas San Antonio

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	260.0
Current RPI:	260
Expected SOS:	196
Current SOS:	196
Current Record:	10-22
Expected Record:	10-22
Current Conf Record:	5-15
Expected Conf Record:	5-15
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-8
Current OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC RPI:	269
Expected OOC SOS:	331

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-22	260.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas San Antonio.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Morgan St. (236.0)	MEAC	N	71-59	L	0%
11-10	Holy Cross (251.0)	Pat	N	60-56	W	100%
11-11	Old Dominion (318.0)	CAA	A	70-79	W	100%
11-17	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	H	67-59	W	100%
11-21	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	A	81-62	L	0%
11-29	Oregon (48.0)	P12	A	95-78	L	0%
12-1	Cal St. Bakersfield (235.0)	ind	A	85-52	L	0%
12-4	Mississippi St. (232.0)	SEC	A	53-42	L	0%
12-8	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	A	88-77	L	0%
12-21	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)	Slnd	A	45-75	W	100%
12-29	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	H	67-71	L	0%
12-31	San Jose St. (261.0)	WAC	H	67-80	L	0%
1-3	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	A	82-62	L	0%
1-6	Denver (64.0)	WAC	A	75-50	L	0%
1-10	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	H	67-75	L	0%
1-12	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	H	71-73	L	0%
1-19	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	H	78-81	L	0%
1-24	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	A	75-78	W	100%
1-26	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	A	74-70	L	0%
1-31	Denver (64.0)	WAC	H	57-71	L	0%
2-2	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	H	62-75	L	0%
2-7	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	A	74-49	L	0%
2-9	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	A	68-63	L	0%
2-12	Cal St. Bakersfield (235.0)	ind	H	52-61	L	0%
2-16	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	A	62-73	W	100%
2-23	Nicholls St. (296.0)	Slnd	H	76-58	W	100%
2-28	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	H	74-56	W	100%
3-2	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	H	37-53	L	0%
3-9	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	A	71-51	L	0%
3-12	San Jose St. (261.0)	WAC	N	49-67	W	100%
3-14	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	N	67-73	W	100%
3-15	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	N	69-53	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas San Antonio's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas San Antonio's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas San Antonio.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas San Antonio	WAC	26.60	26.60	32.91	32.91	-9.09	-9.09
Texas Arlington	WAC	5.72	5.72	55.17	55.17	0.59	0.59
Louisiana Tech	WAC	5.56	5.56	82.14	82.14	3.57	3.57
New Mexico St.	WAC	4.23	4.23	67.74	67.74	1.50	1.50
Texas St.	WAC	4.21	4.21	32.26	32.26	-1.49	-1.49
Utah St.	WAC	4.20	4.20	64.29	64.29	1.20	1.20
Seattle	WAC	4.15	4.15	22.22	22.22	-2.30	-2.30
Denver	WAC	4.12	4.12	67.86	67.86	1.47	1.47
Idaho	WAC	4.09	4.09	37.04	37.04	-1.06	-1.06
San Jose St.	WAC	4.04	4.04	26.92	26.92	-1.86	-1.86
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	3.25	3.25	33.33	33.33	-1.08	-1.08
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	3.12	3.12	44.83	44.83	-0.32	-0.32
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	1.72	1.72	18.52	18.52	-1.08	-1.08
Nicholls St.	Slnd	1.67	1.67	31.03	31.03	-0.63	-0.63
Brigham Young	WCC	1.61	1.61	63.33	63.33	0.43	0.43
Morgan St.	MEAC	1.61	1.61	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Holy Cross	Pat	1.61	1.61	41.38	41.38	-0.28	-0.28
Old Dominion	CAA	1.61	1.61	17.24	17.24	-1.06	-1.06
Mississippi St.	SEC	1.56	1.56	29.03	29.03	-0.66	-0.66
Oregon	P12	1.56	1.56	75.76	75.76	0.80	0.80
Santa Clara	WCC	0.27	0.27	63.33	63.33	0.07	0.07
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.25	0.25	42.86	42.86	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.24	0.24	31.25	31.25	-0.09	-0.09
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.23	0.23	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Utah Valley	GWC	0.22	0.22	35.71	35.71	-0.06	-0.06
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.21	0.21	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Mercer	ASun	0.20	0.20	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
New Orleans	ind	0.19	0.19	18.18	18.18	-0.12	-0.12
UC Davis	BW	0.19	0.19	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.18	0.18	70.37	70.37	0.07	0.07
Boise St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	65.52	65.52	0.06	0.06
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.18	0.18	71.88	71.88	0.08	0.08
Wyoming	MWC	0.17	0.17	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.16	0.16	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.16	0.16	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
California	P12	0.16	0.16	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Lamar	Slnd	0.16	0.16	9.68	9.68	-0.13	-0.13
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.15	0.15	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.15	0.15	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.15	0.15	85.29	85.29	0.10	0.10
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas	B12	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.13	0.13	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.13	0.13	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho St.	BSky	0.13	0.13	17.24	17.24	-0.08	-0.08
Texas A&M	SEC	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Portland	WCC	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.11	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.11	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.11	0.11	85.19	85.19	0.08	0.08
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.10	0.10	81.25	81.25	0.06	0.06
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.10	10.00	10.00	-0.08	-0.08
Lipscomb	ASun	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.10	0.10	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.10	0.10	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.10	0.10	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Montana	BSky	0.08	0.08	79.31	79.31	0.05	0.05
Lafayette	Pat	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.08	0.08	14.81	14.81	-0.05	-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	SB	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Samford	SC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	93.75	93.75	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.02	0.02	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Nevada	MWC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00